Kaliningrad

From Perimetr in the comments at MoA:

Consider the US deployment of 4,200 troops, 250 tanks and howitzers, military equipment and 1,700 additional vehicles being sent to Eastern Europe. According to the Bundeswehr, 900 railroad cars will be required for the transportation with a total length of 14 kilometers.

Battalion tactical groups have the infrastructure for rapid deployment. Personnel can be airlifted and equipment is already in stock. This will be the most capable team of the West in Europe, plus they will support the Polish army, which is quite an impressive effect – taking into account that the aircraft can be quickly deployed from Germany and even from the United States. As a result, the United States will be able to in two weeks to create the most powerful striking force on the borders of the Kaliningrad region.

On the Russian side, there are only three divisions, plus the Baltic Fleet. However, NATO members could delay Russian fleet forces by bringing additional naval groups in the Baltic, where, incidentally, there is also the German Navy, and Polish. In other words, the West is really able to quickly establish superiority of forces in the region of Kaliningrad. This means that if NATO decided to strike first, Russian troops will for the most part be destroyed.

See http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/01/obama-sends-hundreds-of-tanks-to_8.html Obama sends hundreds of tanks to Russian border
January 8th, 2016 – Fort Russ News –

Again, the purpose of this deployment is to threaten the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, which NATO as a serious threat, see https://news.usni.org/2016/04/25/analysis-baltic-sea-heating-up-as-friction-point-between-u-s-nato-and-russia andhttp://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/biggest-threat-us-navy-nato-face-russian-subs-a2-ad-bastions-16808

The US/NATO recent Anaconda war games were essentially a rehearsal for the invasion of Kaliningrad. Anaconda was NATO’s largest field exercise in Europe east of the current German-Polish border since 1992; it included 31,000 soldiers from 24 countries exercising for 10 days with 14,000 American troops participating.

“The U.S. Army Europe map of Anaconda 2016 is very likely an act of information war that supports NATO political goals. Note phase three on the U.S. Army Europe exercise map. Phase three is scheduled for execution on June 10. Alliance troops and vehicles will cross the Vistula River and enter Lithuania. Come one, come all. Lithuania is a NATO member.

However, the maneuver explicitly cuts off Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast. Kaliningrad was once the Prussian city of Konigsberg. Russia kept the city and its environs as a special Kremlin reward for winning World War II.

Anaconda 2016’s conclusive fictional thrust isolates and surrounds Kaliningrad.” [from http://observer.com/2016/06/the-political-message-behind-natos-war-game-in-poland/ ]

Russia may respond to these NATO actions and troop build-up by positioning two tank armies on the borders of Lithuania and Latvia. This response would be to ensure that Russia will not have to rely upon nuclear weapons to crush a NATO attack upon Kaliningrad. However, this build-up of forces is highly destabilizing and creates a situation where even an accident could lead to a direct military conflict between the US/NATO and Russia. Worse, the crazies in Washington or Poland could create a false flag event here designed to produce a US/NATO-Russian conflict.

Such a confrontation is being made even more likely by US and Israeli sales of military equipment to Poland, see http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2017/01/08/poland-acquires-first-strike-capability-pose-threat-russia.html After the US presidential election, the US approved the sale of 70 AGM-158B JASSM-ER missiles (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff missiles with extended range) for Poland. This missile has a range of 575-620 miles and can carry a 992 lb penetrating warhead; an effective stealth weapon to knock out key stationary infrastructure sites located deep in Russia’s territory.

Poland has been implementing the plans to form a 50,000 strong paramilitary territorial defense force, a planned military reserve component of the regular military, since 2015. Roughly, 20,000 guards will join the ranks of the new force in 2017. Warsaw plans to increase the size of the army by at least 50 percent in the coming years (from about 95,000 to 150,000), including the creation of three brigades for the territorial defense of the country on the eastern flank. According to NATO plans, Poland will host rapid response troops starting this year. Warsaw has demanded a full-scale permanent base of the alliance on its territory.

A NATO Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense site to be positioned in Poland in 2018 [a dual-use facility that can launch both interceptors and nuclear-armed cruise missiles] and the AGM-158B are two destabilizing factors that also undermine security in Europe and obstruct prospects for arms control.

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