From Larchmonter445 at The Saker:
Now we have Spicer saying Crimea should go back.
I’ll wait a bit more for a bit more out of Trump.
What is very clear to me is the detente we hoped for is blocked. Trmp and Putin should have had a scheduled meeting or one very soon if he could do it. That is blocked. Despite invitations to host from Iceland, Finland and Slovenia. The earliest is Putin will be at G20 in July and the two will talk then.
If that is Trump’s schedule, someone has a forty-five at the back of his neck.
He is infiltrated, has leaks, gets bad advice from Jared and Ivanka who are tension-adverse.
Pence is a mole. Preibus is a UniParty globalist who wants Paul Ryan as president.
Bannon wants to be Kissinger.
I have said here and elsewhere that Putin will decide all outcomes. He is deciding Syria. He wrote Minsk 2, he postponed Novorossiya, he took Crimea, he has saved Turkey and Erdogan, he is making deals with Egypt and Libya, he escorted Iran through the sanctions and protected their oil industry in the OPEC negotiations. And he has designed the Russia-China strategic partnership.
The future relationship with Trump if there is one will be Putin’s making. Trump has no cards to play that he wants to play. He can have war in Ukraine and Kiev and NATO will be decimated.
He can hurt Russia in Syria, but Russia has demonstrated that it pays back 5-10 fold.
Trump, absolutely does not want more war. His entire domestic remake of the economy cannot sustain more war. The military is fit only for JSOC action. It cannot fight a land war.
The Trump doctrine was to be Peace Through Strength. The US is 5-7 years from beefing back up its nuclear warheads, outfitting a naval-based missile defense system to protect from North Korea, China and Russia. More ships and planes will take at least that long also.
Russia meanwhile is ready for war. It adds S500 this year. Has tanks coming in the next few years and keeps developing missiles of all sorts and sizes. It will use those 5-7 years of US buildup to continue its advantages.
Putin is in a power position. Trump is in a secondary position. And that’s not accounting for the continuing attacks on his administration and the frustration of his team-buildout and agenda.
He needs Putin. And the neocons won’t let them even meet.
Talking tough on Crimea is like Porky saying he’s going to drive his army to Moscow.
Russia is in the third year of sanctions. Four more years is not going to change anything.
And China is arming up its nuclear triad. In four years, they will be well over 1200 warheads, most very mobile or on subs. They are basically built for a massive second strike. The US will look like the Pacific Ocean lapping up on the Mississippi shores. Not much of the West half of America will be left.
These are nightmares for Trump.
Add Iran and Pakistan to the equation. In 4-5 years, they will be enmeshed with Russia and China in strategic defense. With S400s and S500s protecting their arsenals, the US will still be behind the curve no matter what they build.
Putin has played GO, not chess. And the US has very few stones left on the goban.