From EJ Magnier on the 14th:
Turkey is pushing further reinforcements of troops, commando units and tanks into the northern Syrian city of Idlib and around it, for a specific objective: to disrupt the attack against the city by the Syrian forces and their allies supported by Russia…
Russia considers the Turkish reinforcements as a breach of the Astana Turkish-Russian-Iranian deal, which limited the number of observation points and the military presence around the city and rural areas of Idlib. Moreover, Russia effectively considers Turkey to be unable to fulfil its commitment to totally end the presence of jihadists, especially including the group of al-Qaeda, stationed in the city and around it…
Damascus believes Turkey would like to annexe Idlib and is, therefore, rejecting any deal with Turkey beyond the one already signed in Astana which consisted of a commitment to “finish off” all jihadists”…
According to recent information provided by Turkish intelligence to Russia and Iran, the Turkish army is prepared to attack any group refusing to submit to Turkey…
Turkey “is asking for more time to solve the situation in Idlib without a fight…
“There is no plan to attack the city of Idlib for now”, say the sources.
From MoA on the 16th:
US sanctions against the Iranian oil industry starting in November are one reason why tensions between Turkey and the United States could worsen soon. Turkey buys about half its crude oil imports from Iran and has said it will not abide by the new sanctions…
If no wide-scale diplomatic deal on the conflict is reached, one must consider the possibility of a pro-Turkish quasi-state in northern Syria, confirming the thesis that Erdogan is seeking to build a neo-Ottoman empire…
The operation has to wait until the Congressional elections in the U.S. are over and the danger of a U.S. escalation for domestic policy reasons recedes. Russia also fears that an attack on Idelb right now could re-unite the U.S. and Turkey and lead to a new coordinated onslaught on Syria…
Thomas Seibert: “Moscow would wait until October or November before ordering an all-out attack because the Kremlin expects the crisis in Turkish-US relations to deepen even further by then…
Comprehensive action will start at a time when Turkey desperately needs Russian support.”
From the cited EJ Magnier on the meeting in Sochi:
#Syria #Idlib postponed until 15 of #Decembre to start with, with a 15km buffer zone and an engagement of #Turkey to disarm Nusra ( or merge it) and neutralise all other jihadists.
From Zero Hedge on the 18th:
Another attack on Syria has occurred tonight on multiple locations in what is the largest sustained series of what are believed to be Israeli or possibly US air strikes in months. But hugely significant is that early reports suggest Russia’s S-400 anti-missile missile defense system engaged the inbound rockets…
From the cited TASS:
On September 17, at about 11:00 Moscow time, the connection with the crew of the Russian Il-20 aircraft was lost over the Mediterranean Sea when the plane was returning to the airbase of Khmeimim, 35 kilometers from the coast of Syria,” the official said.
The ministry specified that “the mark of IL-20 went off the radars disappeared during the attack of four Israeli F-16 aircraft on Syrian targets in the province of Latakia.”
From Zero Hedge:
While Russia had previously blamed Israel for the downing of the plane, which resulted in the deaths of 15 Russian servicemen, the MoD is now saying that Israel intended to use the Russian plane as “cover” during the attack…
Israeli jets flew over the Mediterranean to launch the attack, only giving Russia a minutes’ notice via a shared hotline before commencing the strike. This allowed the Russian military no time to pull its planes and personnel from the line of fire.
From MoA:
On Sunday September 16 Israel tried to hit an Iranian Boeing 747 freight plane at Damascus airport. The plane allegedly carried an Iranian copy of the Russian S-300 long range air defense System for the Syrian army.
On Monday around 10:00pm local time 4 F-16 jets of the Israeli airforce, coming from the sea, launched missiles against at least three targets on Syria’s coast. The strike came only hours after Israel released satellite images of what it called “strategic targets” in Syria. The integrated Syrian and Russian air-defenses responded.
From EJ Magnier:
Russia was seriously concerned about the US and European intention to destroy the Syrian army in the event of a staged chemical attack. The US had managed to gather behind it a coalition including Britain, France and Germany to bomb Syria, making it very difficult for Russia to react militarily…
Moreover, what was not announced officially is Turkey’s guarantee that no chemical attack will be staged in Idlib to “provoke” the long-heralded US-EU bombing of Syria…
Israelis had asked Russia to “prevent the flow of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah and Syria”. Moscow answered Tel Aviv: this struggle is not part of its business and it is not ready to police the movement of weapons from Iran to its allies.
Idem, when Iran asked Russia to force on Israel the cessation of attacks in Syria against its allies and its forces, Moscow gave the same answer: “we are not ready to take part in your struggle with Israel”…
The downing of the Russian plane is expected to impose on Israel full coordination and approval for its flights over Syria hours before the strike, in order for Russia to maintain its neutral position. This will also give Syria and its allies the possibility to await Israeli missiles and jets and remove sensitive weapons to limit damage.
From Haaretz:
Russia has begun stepping up operations off the coast of Syria following the downing of a military aircraft, media outlets in Cyprus reported on Thursday. Russia reportedly decided to close areas near Cyprus to air, land and sea movement from Thursday until next Wednesday for the sake of military operations. Sources in Israel confirmed the report…
An Israel Defense Forces delegation headed by the commander of the air force, Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin departed Thursday to Moscow to present the findings of its inquiry into the incident.
“Well, how can #Russia do that?,” you ask. Because since #Ukraine, #Russia controls everything it wishes on land, sea and air with superior weapons and tactics.
Bad Republic 